World Cup Dark Horses

I believe these 4 teams have the potential to surprise

At long last, the World Cup is upon us. The globe’s biggest sporting event (at least in my opinion, maybe you think the answer is the Olympics) is coming to the United States, Canada, and Mexico this summer and features 48 teams, far larger than the previous 32-team format. The expanded format means we get to see a much larger variety of teams and plenty of new faces. 4 teams are making their debut, while 7 more teams are making their first appearance since before the turn of the millenium.

The tournament’s increased size means a larger knockout stage too. 32 teams will reach the bracket-phase of the championship, meaning that many more nations can have their sights set on getting out of their group. This means that the dark horse potential is more likely than ever.

How I classify dark horses

In this article, the teams I am talking about as possible dark horses are teams that I rate higher than the consensus and believe will make it further than expected in the tournament. These teams won’t be making a run to the final (only 8 nations have since 1970), but have the potential to win a knockout game or two, and some with the ceiling of a semifinal run in the vein of Morocco in 2022. A few rules:

• Dark horses cannot have previously won the World Cup (England, France, Spain, Germany, Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina)

• Dark horses cannot have reached the Knockout Stage at the 2022 World Cup (United States, Netherlands, Australia, South Korea, Croatia, Japan, Senegal, Morocco, Portugal, Switzerland)

• Dark horses cannot be ranked in the top 20 of the FIFA Rankings (Belgium, Colombia, Mexico)

• Dark horses cannot be a host nation (Canada)

This leaves 27 eligible teams teams, getting rid of nations with World Cup triumphs, recent Group Stage success, or a perception as one of the better teams in the world. I also do not consider host nations to be dark horses, as many host nations have seen improved performances at home, and they do not really fit the description of a “dark horse” as a big spotlight is put on the host nations.

Now without further ado, here are my best bets for dark horses this summer:

Ecuador

I have a lot of faith in Ecuador this year. La Tri have qualified for the World Cup for just the 5th time, and despite being placed in a competitive Group E, I think they’ll face little trouble in qualifying for the knockout stage for the 2nd time ever.

Ecuador is in elite form, currently riding a 17-match unbeaten run, their last defeat being a 1-0 loss in Brazil in September 2024. They’ve conceded just 5 goals in that timeframe. They were brilliant during CONMEBOL qualification, finishing 2nd ahead of the likes of Brazil, Uruguay, and Colombia, letting in just 5 goals during the 18-game qualification cycle, tied for the fewest ever in the current South American qualification format (since 1998). Ecuador has been consistently sound defensively for a while now, conceding multiple goals in just 2 of their last 36 matches.

The Ecuador defense is anchored by some high-profile stars. The center back pairing of Willian Pacho (PSG) and Piero Hincapié (Arsenal) is one of the best in the world, a pairing that gets even better when forming a trio with midfield force Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea). Fullbacks Ángelo Preciado (Atlético Mineiro) and Pervis Estupiñán (AC Milan) fill out the rest of the backline, completing a defensive grouping that rivals some of the elite nations not just on the field but on paper. Record goalscorer Enner Valencia (Pachuca) is still the country’s talisman at the age of 36 and continues to be a very capable option. In their 17-game unbeaten run, Valencia scored 8 of Ecuador’s 15 goals.

Despite never having won a World Cup knockout round game, I expect Ecuador to win multiple this summer, and they have the talent and defensive dominance to make a run at the Semifinals.

Türkiye

Türkiye will play in only their 3rd World Cup, making their first appearance since their 2002 Semifinal run. Drawn into a favorable but balanced Group D, the Turks look to be the favorites of the group, and a group win would set them up with an open path to the Quarterfinals.

Türkiye are in fine form, winning 9 of 12 since the start of 2025. They finished 2nd in their UEFA qualification group, dominating Georgia and Bulgaria and even holding Spain to a draw in Seville. This placed them in the UEFA qualification playoffs, where they notched 1-0 victories against Romania and Kosovo to advance to the World Cup, holding firm by allowing just 2 shots on goal.

The current Turkish generation may be the most talented in their history. The squad is headlined by young superstars Kenan Yıldız (Juventus) and Arda Güler (Real Madrid). The pair helped Türkiye reach the Quarterfinals of Euro 2024 in their first tournament with the national team. They may soon make a trio with Can Uzun (Eintracht Frankfurt) who is coming off of a breakout campaign in the Bundesliga. Türkiye also possess a plethora of names in the midfield and forward lines who are in their primes, such as Orkun Kökçü (Beşiktaş), Atakan Karazor (Stuttgart), Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Fenerbahçe), and Barış Alper Yılmaz (Galatasaray), providing Türkiye with the necessary depth to compete against top nations. And of course, captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter Milan) still leads the way and will feature in midfield. Another boost to Türkiye’s hopes have been the performances of goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakir (Galatasaray), who was brilliant in the Champions League this season.

Türkiye are on the rise and look poised to deliver an encore performance to their run in the Euros two years ago, and with an ideal bracket draw have a clear route to the Quarterfinals.

Côte d’Ivoire

Ivory Coast look quite strong heading into their 4th World Cup, their first appearance since 2014. Les Éléphants will face steep competition in Group E, but are a tough side themselves and will be a tricky out in a knockout game. They should reach the knockout stage for the first time ever.

The Ivorians have lost just 6 of their last 34 matches going back to the knockout stage of AFCON 2024 where they miraculously became champions. They finished 1st in their CAF qualification group, incredibly not allowing a single goal through the 10 game cycle. They continued their strong defensive performances in friendlies against South Korea and Scotland in March, winning 4-0 and 1-0 respectively.

The Ivorian defense is headlined by Evan Ndicka (Roma), Wilfried Singo (Galatasaray), and Odilon Kossounou (Atalanta). Ndicka has kept a clean sheet in 16 of his 27 caps, and Singo hasn’t conceded a goal in his last 447 minutes of play. The midfield features big names like captain Franck Kessié (Al-Ahli), Seko Fofana (Porto), and Ibrahim Sangaré (Nottingham Forest), who further contribute to the defensive might. There is depth in attack, featuring breakout star Yan Diomande (RB Leipzig) who produced 19 goals + assists in his first season in Germany, as well as former Arsenal winger Nicolas Pépé (Villarreal), who is coming off of his most productive season in years and has been solid for the national team as their most experienced attacker. Amad Diallo (Manchester United) is another notable name, although is coming off of a down year.

This is a squad that should expect to get out of the groups and fight to win a knockout round game, even against a contender. It wouldn’t come as a shock to see the 2024 AFCON champs make a run to the Quarterfinals.

Norway

Norway are making just their 5th appearance at any major tournament, their first since Euro 2000 over a quarter century ago. Despite a tough draw in Group I, the Landslaget should get through and have more than enough talent to make a deep run.

The Norwegians were in perfect form during UEFA qualification, winning their group with a perfect 8-0-0 record and +32 goal difference, including defeating Italy by 3 goals in each of their home and away matchups. Norway went on a 12-match unbeaten run from late 2024 through 2025, their 2nd-longest such streak, and was the first time that they completed a calendar year unbeaten.

Unsurprisingly, one of the big storylines coming into this year’s World Cup is Erling Haaland (Manchester City) making his major tournament debut. He has scored a ridiculous 55 goals in 49 games for his country, recently going 11 straight games with a goal for Norway in 2025. He ranks 3rd all-time in goals per game in international play (min. 50 goals) only behind Vivian Woodward and Poul Nielsen, players who last played more than a century ago. Haaland isn’t the only attacking talent on the roster, which features Alexander Sørloth (Atlético Madrid), who has scored 68 goals across the last 4 La Liga campaigns, captain Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal), who just captained his club side to the Premier League title, and Julian Ryerson (Borussia Dortmund), who just notched 15 assists from right back in the Bundesliga, and will surely help provide for Haaland. There’s also a crop of young talent, such as Antonio Nusa (RB Leipzig), Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica), Oscar Bobb (Fulham), and Thelo Aasgaard (Rangers).

One would think Norway is destined to fight for second in their group, yet Austria topped France in the group stage at Euro 2024, so a side with Norway’s talent can definitely give them a go. With all their attacking quality, this Norway group easily has the potential to make a run to the Quarterfinals.

Let me know who your dark horses are!